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iran_aluminum_production_1973_19801973–1980↓ Download CSV

Primary Aluminum (Ingot) Production

Arak/Iralco smelter (82.5% IDRO / 12.5% Reynolds US / 5% Pakistan Govt per usgs_iran_commodity_narrative_highlights) -- output peaks 51,000t in 1975 then declines to 10,000t by 1980.

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  1. 011976Credit squeeze collapses construction boomAssociation

    A sharp rise in inflation combined with a Central Bank credit squeeze ends the oil-boom-fueled construction and building boom that had drawn international contractors to Iran since the early 1970s, sharply slowing investment and GDP growth.

    Why this link: Primary aluminum ingot production, which had risen from 33,700 tonnes (1973) to a peak of 51,000 (1975), fell to 30,600 (1976, -40.0%) and 21,100 (1977, -31.0% further, -58.6% cumulative from the 1975 peak) -- aluminum being a heavily construction- and durable-goods-linked industrial metal, this decline tracks the 1976 credit squeeze's ending of the oil-boom construction boom almost exactly.

    Caveat: Global aluminum prices and Iran's own alumina/energy-input supply arrangements (the Iranian smelter relied on imported alumina) could independently affect output in ways this project's data cannot separate from the domestic credit-squeeze channel.

    Lag: immediate, 1975-1977Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica (Iran -- The White Revolution)
  2. 021979Islamic RevolutionAssociation

    Mohammad Reza Shah's government falls; the Islamic Republic is proclaimed under Ayatollah Khomeini on 1 April 1979.

    Why this link: After a partial 1978 recovery to 25,500 tonnes, production resumed its collapse to 14,000 (1979, -45.1%) and just 10,000 by 1980 (-60.8% cumulative from 1978, -80.4% from the 1975 peak) as the revolution and its immediate aftermath compounded the industrial disruption already underway since 1976.

    Caveat: This chart's data ends in 1980, so it cannot show whether the subsequent Iran-Iraq War deepened or began to reverse this trend; the 1976 credit squeeze and 1979 revolution are two distinct, sequential shocks to the same declining trend, not a single event, and their individual contributions cannot be separated from production data alone.

    Lag: immediate, 1978-1980Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica

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