Crude Oil Export Volume
Short but genuinely continuous 6-year annual series (not a snapshot) -- crude oil, oil-products, and total export volume in thousand barrels/day, sourced by CBI onward to the Ministry of Petroleum.
Event_Log
0119861986 oil price collapseCorrelationExpected causation
Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).
Why this link: Saudi Arabia's abandonment of the swing-producer role crashed oil prices from ~$27 to under $10/barrel in 1986, gutting the oil-rent share of GDP for every exporter in this database, including war-strained Iran.
Caveat: Iran's 1986 oil revenue was also shaped by wartime production constraints and OPEC quota disputes specific to Iran, not just the global price collapse.
Lag: Immediate, within the same fiscal year.Source: US Energy Information Administration0220032000s commodity super-cycleCorrelationExpected causation
China's post-2001 WTO-driven infrastructure boom, alongside strong global growth, drives the IMF commodity price index up roughly fourfold between January 2000 and mid-2008; crude oil rises from about $30/barrel in 2003 to a record $147/barrel on 11 July 2008, delivering a sustained fiscal windfall to every oil exporter in this database (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia) before the Global Financial Crisis abruptly ends the cycle.
Why this link: Crude prices roughly quintupled from about $30/barrel in 2003 to a record $147 in mid-2008, directly driving the oil-rent share of Iran's GDP to its highest levels of the post-revolutionary era.
Caveat: Iran's own production volume (constrained by underinvestment and later sanctions) also affects this share, not price alone.
Lag: Immediate, within the same year.Source: US Energy Information Administration··2003Iraq War beginsCorrelationExpected causation
US-led invasion halts roughly 2 million barrels/day of Iraqi oil production; global crude prices spike toward $40/barrel before Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members raise output to offset the loss, averaging $30/barrel for 2003 overall (up 19% from 2002).
Why this link: The invasion briefly spiked global crude toward $40/barrel by removing roughly 2 million barrels/day of Iraqi supply, before Saudi and OPEC offsets brought the 2003 average to about $30, a modest boost layered onto the broader commodity-cycle rise that fed Iran's oil-rent share of GDP.
Caveat: This is a small, short-lived contribution compared to the multi-year commodity super-cycle that was already underway.
Lag: Weeks to months.Source: Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP)032008Global Financial Crisis — Lehman Brothers collapseCorrelationExpected causation
Triggers a synchronized global recession; oil prices crash from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months, hitting every oil exporter in this database simultaneously, while credit-driven European economies (Spain, Portugal, Greece) enter prolonged crises.
Why this link: Oil prices crashed from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months of the Lehman collapse, sharply cutting Iran's oil-rent share of GDP at the peak of the prior boom.
Caveat: The rebound in oil prices through 2009-2010 was relatively fast, so the effect on the annual GDP series is sharper in some years than others.
Lag: Immediate, within months.Source: Federal Reserve History··2011Arab Spring beginsCorrelationExpected causation
Protests beginning in Tunisia in December 2010 spread across the Middle East and North Africa; resulting production disruptions (over 2 million barrels/day lost across Libya, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia and Sudan) push Brent crude from $92 to $120/barrel by April 2011, benefiting Saudi Arabia's fiscal position while destabilizing regional oil supply.
Why this link: Over 2 million barrels/day of MENA production was disrupted (Libya, Syria, Yemen), pushing Brent from $92 to $120/barrel by April 2011, a tailwind for Iran's oil-rent share of GDP even as Iran itself faced tightening Western sanctions the same year.
Caveat: The simultaneous escalation of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran's own oil exports makes it hard to isolate the price benefit from the volume losses Iran itself experienced starting in 2012.
Lag: Within the same year.Source: US Energy Information Administration0420142014-2016 oil price collapseCorrelationExpected causation
Oil prices fall from ~$115 to below $30/barrel amid US shale supply growth and OPEC's decision not to cut output; a major driver of Venezuela's and Russia's subsequent crises, and a fiscal shock for Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Why this link: Oil prices fell from ~$115 to below $30/barrel between mid-2014 and early 2016, a direct and severe fiscal shock that sharply cut Iran's oil-rent share of GDP just as sanctions were also constraining export volumes.
Caveat: Sanctions-driven volume losses and the price collapse occurred simultaneously in this period, making the price effect alone hard to isolate.
Lag: Immediate, within months.Source: US Energy Information Administration052015Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) signedCorrelationExpected causation
Iran and the P5+1 finalize the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in Vienna, exchanging nuclear-program limits for the lifting of UN, EU and US nuclear-related sanctions; roughly $100bn in frozen Iranian assets are released after IAEA-verified implementation begins in January 2016.
Why this link: Sanctions relief beginning in January 2016 allowed Iran to roughly double its oil exports within a year, directly lifting fuel's share of merchandise exports.
Caveat: The recovery in export volume was also constrained by upstream investment shortfalls after years of underinvestment, so the rebound was not as complete as sanctions relief alone would predict.
Lag: 6-12 months (implementation began January 2016).Source: European External Action Service062018US withdraws from the JCPOACorrelationExpected causation
President Trump announces US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and directs the phased reimposition of all sanctions lifted in 2015-16, with full "snapback" effective 5 November 2018, reversing the 2015 sanctions-relief framework and re-isolating Iran's oil and banking sectors from the dollar system.
Why this link: Snapback sanctions from November 2018 cut Iran's oil exports by roughly two-thirds within a year, a direct and well-documented collapse in the fuel share of merchandise exports.
Caveat: None significant: the mechanism (US secondary sanctions on oil buyers) and the export data are both well documented and closely aligned in timing.
Lag: Within 6 months of the November 2018 snapback.Source: OFAC — May 2018 Guidance on Reimposing Certain Sanctions with Respect to Iran072020COVID-19 declared a pandemicCorrelationExpected causation
WHO declaration triggers synchronized global lockdowns, an oil-demand collapse (WTI briefly trades negative on 20 April 2020), and unprecedented fiscal/monetary stimulus across every country in this database.
Why this link: Synchronized global lockdowns and the oil-demand collapse cut into Iran's growth in 2020, on top of the sanctions-driven contraction already underway.
Caveat: Sanctions were already the dominant drag on Iran's economy going into 2020, so isolating the pandemic's incremental contribution from the ongoing sanctions contraction is difficult.
Lag: Within the same year.Source: World Health Organization··2020WTI oil futures trade negativeCorrelationExpected causation
COVID-19 demand collapse combined with the March 2020 Saudi-Russia price war and near-full storage capacity at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub drive the US WTI May futures contract to an unprecedented settlement of -$37.63/barrel, the starkest single data point of the pandemic-era oil-demand shock.
Why this link: The negative WTI print was the starkest single data point of the broader 2020 pandemic oil-demand collapse that also weighed on Iran's oil-rent share of GDP that year.
Caveat: This single-day event on a US futures contract cannot be isolated from the broader annual oil-price collapse already captured under the COVID-19 pandemic event; treat as illustrative context rather than a separate driver.
Lag: Same quarter.Source: US Energy Information Administration··2022Russian invasion of UkraineCorrelationExpected causation
Triggers sweeping Western sanctions on Russia, a global energy-price shock benefiting other oil/gas exporters (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela partially re-engaged by the West for supply), and a European inflation surge affecting Spain, Portugal, Greece.
Why this link: Sweeping Western sanctions on Russian energy pushed global oil and gas prices sharply higher in 2022, a windfall that benefited Iran's oil-rent share of GDP even amid its own separate sanctions regime.
Caveat: Iran's own export volumes remained sanctions-constrained throughout, so the price windfall could not translate into proportional revenue gains the way it did for unsanctioned exporters.
Lag: Within months.Source: OFAC — Russia-related sanctions