Broad money (current LCU)_

Event_Log

1. 011979Nationalization of banks and major industriesAssociation

   Revolutionary Council nationalizes the banking system and large private industrial/commercial conglomerates, restructuring much of the economy under state and bonyad control.

   Why this link: Broad money growth accelerated to 35.5% (1979) and stayed persistently in the 25-45%/year range through the 1980s (level rising from 1.9tn rials in 1977 to 4.0tn by 1980) as the newly nationalized banking system extended credit to finance both the state takeover of industry and, from September 1980, the war with Iraq.

   Caveat: None substantial -- monetary financing of the revolutionary state and the war is well-documented in the secondary literature on this period.

   Lag: immediate to 1-year lagSource: Encyclopaedia Iranica (Economy x. Under the Islamic Republic)
2. 022008Global Financial Crisis — Lehman Brothers collapseAssociation

   Triggers a synchronized global recession; oil prices crash from ~$147 to ~$40/barrel within months, hitting every oil exporter in this database simultaneously, while credit-driven European economies (Spain, Portugal, Greece) enter prolonged crises.

   Why this link: Broad money growth decelerated sharply to 11.9% in 2008 (from 33.9% in 2007), the steepest one-year deceleration in the series, plausibly reflecting reduced oil-revenue-driven liquidity injection as global crude prices crashed in H2 2008 alongside a pre-existing domestic anti-inflation tightening push.

   Caveat: Iran was largely insulated from the global banking-sector contagion itself (sanctions already limited its financial integration), so the causal channel here is the oil-price component of the GFC rather than a direct financial-crisis transmission -- confidence kept moderate.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: Federal Reserve History
3. 032012Rial collapses amid sanctions squeezeAssociation

   Under the combined weight of NDAA Central Bank sanctions, the EU oil embargo and the SWIFT disconnection, Iran's free-market rial loses roughly a quarter to 40% of its value against the US dollar within a single week, falling to about 35,000-40,000 rials/dollar versus roughly 10,000/dollar two years earlier; Tehran's Grand Bazaar merchants strike in protest on 3 October 2012.

   Why this link: Broad money growth jumped from 20.2% (2011) to 34.0% (2012) as collapsing oil revenue under sanctions pushed the government to lean more heavily on central-bank financing of its deficit, a documented driver of the accelerated 2012 money-supply growth that fed into the CPI inflation spike of the following years.

   Caveat: None substantial.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: NPR -- Currency In Crisis: Collapse Of Iran's Rial Continues