Expense (% of GDP)_

Event_Log

1. 011974Great Civilization spending surge -- Fifth Plan revisedAssociation

   Following the 1973-74 oil price quadrupling, government oil revenue rises from $5bn to $19bn in a year; the Shah revises the Fifth Development Plan, nearly doubling total planned investment from $36.5bn to $70bn and raising overall government spending from $44bn to $123bn, fueling severe absorptive-capacity bottlenecks and inflation.

   Why this link: Government expense jumped from 18.5% of GDP (1973) to 33.1% (1974), directly matching the documented near-tripling of planned government spending (from $44bn to $123bn revised) following the 1973-74 oil price quadrupling and the Fifth Plan's upward revision.

   Caveat: None substantial -- this is one of the most directly documented fiscal-policy events in the whole database.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: Intereconomics (Naini) -- The Fifth Development Plan
2. 0219861986 oil price collapseAssociation

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   Why this link: Government expense as a share of GDP nearly halved from 27.2% (1981) to a low of 15.0% (1989), a decade-long decline that continued through and past the 1986 oil-price collapse (which cut the oil revenue funding much of that spending) even as the Iran-Iraq War itself demanded elevated absolute outlays.

   Caveat: This is a gradual, decade-long trend with several overlapping causes (the 1977 Amouzegar austerity program's precedent, wartime financing constraints, the 1986 oil crash, and general post-revolution state retrenchment); no single event explains the full trajectory, so confidence is moderate. WDI's IMF-GFS-sourced government finance series for Iran also simply ends in 2009, so no post-2010 sanctions-era comparison is possible within this indicator.

   Lag: gradual over 5+ yearsSource: US Energy Information Administration