GDP (current US$)_

Event_Log

1. 011973Oil price shockAssociation

   OPEC price increases following the Arab oil embargo roughly quadruple Iran's oil revenue, fueling a large-scale but overheated state spending boom (Fifth Development Plan, 1973-78).

   Why this link: Dollar-denominated GDP jumped 57.9% in 1973 and a further 70.6% in 1974 (from $27.1bn to $46.2bn), tracking the OPEC price quadrupling almost exactly; oil revenue enters GDP directly as government/oil-sector value added, so the mechanical link here is close to definitional rather than merely correlational.

   Caveat: Current-US$ GDP mixes real output growth with pure price/valuation effects; the two cannot be fully separated in this single series.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin
2. 021993Exchange-rate unification attemptAssociation

   Rafsanjani government attempts to unify Iran's multiple-tier exchange rate system; the effort partially unwinds after reserve pressure.

   Why this link: USD-GDP collapsed 46.8% in 1993 ($119.8bn to $63.7bn) the same year the rial's official rate devalued from ~66 to ~1,268/US$ under the unification attempt. WDI converts LCU GDP to current US$ using conversion factors close to this official rate, so the FX regime change mechanically shrinks reported dollar GDP even though real rial-denominated output did not fall anywhere close to 47% that year.

   Caveat: This is substantially a currency-conversion/measurement artifact, not evidence of a real output collapse -- a naive reading would badly overstate the actual economic damage. Flagged explicitly given this project's no-fabrication standard.

   Lag: immediate (same year)Source: IMF Iran country page (Article IV history)
3. 032012SWIFT disconnection and oil-export sanctionsAssociation

   Major Iranian banks cut off from SWIFT messaging; US NDAA sanctions target foreign purchasers of Iranian oil, triggering a sharp rial depreciation through 2012-13.

   Why this link: USD-GDP fell 36.5% from its 2012 peak ($644.0bn) to 2015 ($409.2bn) as the SWIFT disconnection, EU oil embargo and NDAA Section 1245 CBI sanctions (all effective 2012) roughly halved oil exports and triggered the rial's collapse, both of which mechanically shrink dollar-denominated GDP.

   Caveat: Real GDP growth (see the companion GDP-growth-rate chart) also turned negative in 2012-2013, so part of this decline reflects genuine activity loss, not pure FX conversion -- the two channels are not separable within this series alone.

   Lag: 1-3 year lagSource: USIP Iran Primer — Timeline of U.S. Sanctions
4. 042018US withdraws from JCPOAAssociation

   President Trump announces US withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions after 90/180-day wind-down periods (effective Aug 7 and Nov 5, 2018).

   Why this link: USD-GDP nearly halved from $510.2bn (2017) to $280.9bn (2020), coinciding with the JCPOA withdrawal and snapback sanctions that cut oil exports toward zero and drove a further rial collapse, compounded by the 2020 COVID-19 shock and that year's global oil-price crash.

   Caveat: Sanctions and COVID-19 effects overlap in 2020 and are not separable in this series; the global oil-price collapse (WTI briefly negative, April 2020) independently depressed Iran's dollar oil-export receipts on top of the sanctions channel.

   Lag: immediate to 2-year lagSource: Wikipedia — US withdrawal from the JCPOA (cross-check against OFAC primary orders)