موازنه حساب جاری (موازنه پرداخت‌ها، دلار جاری آمریکا)_

رویدادها

1. 01۱۹۷۹Second oil shockقوت ارتباط

   Iranian Revolution disrupts oil supply; global prices roughly double 1979-1980, compounding stagflation in oil-importing economies and windfall revenue in exporters.

   چرایی این پیوند: The current account surplus widened from $104m (1978) to $11.97bn (1979) as global oil prices roughly doubled following the Iranian Revolution's disruption of Iran's own supply -- a textbook case of the PRICE effect swamping the VOLUME effect: Iran's own oil exports were falling through the revolution, but the price windfall more than compensated in dollar terms.

   ملاحظه: The Islamic Revolution (1979-02-11, same year) is a direct alternative/compounding candidate event for the same data point -- the two are not separable within a single annual observation; listed under the GLOBAL price-shock event because the price mechanism is what actually drives the sign and scale of the current-account move.

   تأخیر اثر: immediateمنبع: US Energy Information Administration
2. 02۱۹۸۰Iran-Iraq War beginsقوت ارتباط

   Eight-year war (1980-1988) imposes massive fiscal costs, disrupts oil exports, and entrenches a rationing/coupon system for basic goods.

   چرایی این پیوند: The current account swung from a $11.97bn surplus (1979) to a $2.44bn deficit (1980), a roughly $14.4bn swing in one year, as the war's outbreak (Sept 1980) damaged export infrastructure and disrupted trade even as the Nov 1979 US asset freeze and April 1980 trade embargo (both already in effect) compounded the financial isolation.

   ملاحظه: Three IRN events (asset freeze Nov 1979, trade embargo Apr 1980, war Sept 1980) all fall within or just before this single annual data point -- the war is highlighted as the most direct cause of the swing to deficit specifically because it damaged physical export capacity, but the asset freeze and embargo are genuine compounding causes, not ruled out.

   تأخیر اثر: immediateمنبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica