رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی (درصد سالانه)_

رویدادها

1. 01۱۹۷۹Islamic Revolutionقوت ارتباط

   Mohammad Reza Shah's government falls; the Islamic Republic is proclaimed under Ayatollah Khomeini on 1 April 1979.

   چرایی این پیوند: Real GDP contracted 12.8% in 1978, 12.0% in 1979 and a further 21.6% in 1980 -- Iran's deepest and best-documented real-output collapse in the modern series -- as the revolution disrupted oil production and administration and the Iraqi invasion (Sept 1980) then destroyed infrastructure and diverted resources to war.

   ملاحظه: The revolution and the war's outbreak occurred only 19 months apart, so the exact split of the three-year, ~40-cumulative-point contraction between revolution-only and war-only effects cannot be cleanly isolated from GDP growth alone.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: Encyclopaedia Britannica
2. 02۱۹۸۶1986 oil price collapseقوت ارتباط

   Saudi Arabia abandons its swing-producer role; oil prices crash from ~$27 to under $10/barrel, straining every oil-exporting economy in this database (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, USSR, Iran).

   چرایی این پیوند: Growth fell to -9.8% in 1986 and -6.1% in 1988 (with a brief 1987 pause near zero). The global 1986 oil-price collapse (Saudi Arabia abandoning its swing-producer role, prices falling from ~$27 to under $10/barrel) hit Iran's oil-export revenue in the middle of the Iran-Iraq War, compounding wartime economic strain in its most destructive final years.

   ملاحظه: Multiple simultaneous shocks (global oil price, war attrition, wartime infrastructure damage) overlap here; the specific magnitude cannot be attributed to the oil-price channel alone.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: US Energy Information Administration
3. 03۱۹۸۹First Post-War Five-Year Plan (Rafsanjani reconstruction)قوت ارتباط

   Rafsanjani government begins post-war economic liberalization and reconstruction planning after Khomeini's death (June 1989).

   چرایی این پیوند: Real GDP growth swung sharply positive to 13.6% (1990) and 12.7% (1991) as the August 1988 ceasefire and Rafsanjani's reconstruction-oriented plan reopened investment and import channels and closed the wartime output gap.

   ملاحظه: Part of this rebound is mechanical (recovery off a very low, war-depressed base) rather than proof the specific reconstruction policy package was well designed -- the subsequent 1993-97 external-debt crisis (see the debt-service-ratio chart) shows its financing was not sustainable.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 1-year lagمنبع: Iran Data Portal (Syracuse University)
4. 04۲۰۱۲SWIFT disconnection and oil-export sanctionsقوت ارتباط

   Major Iranian banks cut off from SWIFT messaging; US NDAA sanctions target foreign purchasers of Iranian oil, triggering a sharp rial depreciation through 2012-13.

   چرایی این پیوند: Real GDP contracted 3.7% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013 -- the only negative-growth episode in the whole series outside war/revolution -- coinciding exactly with the SWIFT disconnection, EU oil embargo and NDAA CBI sanctions that cut oil exports and triggered the rial collapse; IMF and independent analyses both attribute this recession directly to the sanctions shock.

   ملاحظه: None substantial; this is one of the best-corroborated causal episodes in the dataset.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: USIP Iran Primer — Timeline of U.S. Sanctions
5. 05۲۰۱۸US withdraws from JCPOAقوت ارتباط

   President Trump announces US withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions after 90/180-day wind-down periods (effective Aug 7 and Nov 5, 2018).

   چرایی این پیوند: Real GDP contracted in both 2018 (-3.7%) and 2019 (-2.4%), immediately following the US JCPOA withdrawal and reimposition of oil/banking sanctions; IMF and World Bank analyses both attribute this recession directly to the sanctions shock on oil exports and investment.

   ملاحظه: None substantial.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: Wikipedia — US withdrawal from the JCPOA (cross-check against OFAC primary orders)