Cereals, primary, Producer Price_

Event_Log

1. ··19721972-74 world food crisisCorrelationExpected causation

   Poor harvests in the Soviet Union, South Asia and the Sahel combine with the USSR's massive surprise 1972 US grain purchase ("the Great Grain Robbery") and, from late 1973, the oil price shock's impact on fertilizer and transport costs to roughly triple world grain prices by 1974; the resulting global food-price and supply crisis hits food-importing developing countries hardest and prompts the 1974 World Food Conference, with farm prices not fully retreating until a 1975 US-Soviet grain agreement.

   Why this link: The 1972-74 spike in world grain prices, driven by poor harvests, the Soviet Union's 1972 grain purchases, and rising fertilizer and transport costs after the oil shock, pushed up international wheat and cereal prices that fed through to Iran's domestic prices for these staples.

   Caveat: Iran's domestic wheat price was also shaped by its own guaranteed-purchase and subsidy policies of the period, so the global crisis's pass-through to the domestic price series is only partial and hard to isolate precisely.

   Lag: Effects concentrated in 1972-1974.Source: US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service — "Agricultural Commodity Price Spikes in the 1970s and 1990s"

Related_Laws

Laws related to this measure. Correlation = how closely this law tracks this measure's story. Expected causation = how strongly we would expect it to have moved the line. Neither is a claim of proof.

1. 1989CorrelationExpected causationAct Amending the Guaranteed Purchase of Essential Agricultural Products Act of 1989

   Passed in 1993, this law extends the list of staple crops covered by the 1989 Guaranteed Purchase Act to include raisins, dates, dried fruit, citrus, apples, pomegranates, figs, livestock products and silk cocoons.

   Why this link: The same guaranteed-purchase-price framework also covers barley and other cereal staples, giving the amendment a broader reach across essential cereal prices beyond wheat.

   Caveat: Barley and other cereal prices are less consistently or fully covered by guaranteed purchase in practice than wheat, so attribution is weaker for these commodities.

2. 1989CorrelationExpected causationGuaranteed Purchase of Essential Agricultural Products Act

   Passed in 1989, this law requires the government to guarantee and announce a minimum purchase price each farming year for staple agricultural products such as wheat, rice, barley, cotton and oilseeds, later extended to raisins, dates, citrus and livestock products, in order to support farm incomes and stabilize production.

   Why this link: The framework law's stated scope covers 'basic agricultural products' broadly, giving it a diffuse relevance across the wider agricultural price domain beyond the specific crops directly covered in practice.

   Caveat: In practice only a handful of strategic crops (mainly wheat) receive binding guaranteed prices each year; most items in this broad price category are unaffected.

   Lag: Variable.
3. 2005CorrelationExpected causationAct Adding Two Notes to the Guaranteed Purchase of Essential Agricultural Products Act of 1989

   Passed in 2005, this law amends the 1989 Guaranteed Purchase of Essential Agricultural Products Act by requiring the government to raise the guaranteed purchase price of staple crops each farming year by at least the rate of inflation reported by the Central Bank, applied retroactively to the 2004-2005 crop year.

   Why this link: The guaranteed-purchase-price regime this law amends covers all 'basic' agricultural crops, not just wheat, so it shapes producer prices across the guaranteed-purchase basket.

   Caveat: Coverage and the specific crops included in the guaranteed-purchase list vary by year and are set by separate annual government decisions, so the link to any single crop's price series is indirect.

   Lag: Within the same crop year