Consumer Price Index by COICOP Group (1395=100, SH1390-1399)
Consumer Price Index by COICOP Group (1395=100, SH1390-1399)
Event_Log
··20032000s commodity super-cycleCorrelationExpected causation
China's post-2001 WTO-driven infrastructure boom, alongside strong global growth, drives the IMF commodity price index up roughly fourfold between January 2000 and mid-2008; crude oil rises from about $30/barrel in 2003 to a record $147/barrel on 11 July 2008, delivering a sustained fiscal windfall to every oil exporter in this database (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia) before the Global Financial Crisis abruptly ends the cycle.
Why this link: Oil-funded fiscal and monetary expansion during the super-cycle is a widely cited driver of Iran's persistently elevated inflation rate in the mid-to-late 2000s.
Caveat: Inflation in Iran has many structural drivers (subsidies, exchange-rate pass-through, liquidity growth); the oil cycle is one contributing channel among several.
Lag: 1-2 years.Source: US Energy Information Administration012018US withdraws from the JCPOACorrelationExpected causation
President Trump announces US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and directs the phased reimposition of all sanctions lifted in 2015-16, with full "snapback" effective 5 November 2018, reversing the 2015 sanctions-relief framework and re-isolating Iran's oil and banking sectors from the dollar system.
Why this link: The sanctions-driven rial collapse fed through into a sharp acceleration of consumer-price inflation from 2018 into 2019-2020, a well-known exchange-rate pass-through channel.
Caveat: Money-supply growth and subsidy/energy-price adjustments in late 2019 also contributed independently to this inflation surge.
Related_Laws
Laws related to this measure. Correlation = how closely this law tracks this measure's story. Expected causation = how strongly we would expect it to have moved the line. Neither is a claim of proof.
1944CorrelationExpected causationBylaw Concerning Coupons and Rationing Booklets
Regulates the use of coupons and rationing booklets for distributing rationed goods.
Why this link: As a formal price/quantity-control regime on staple goods, this 1944 bylaw is historical context for Iran's long-run inflation and price-control story, even though it predates the modern CPI series carried on the site.
Caveat: No CPI series on the site covers 1944; this link is contextual, not measurable against a specific chart series.
Lag: Not applicable, historical context only.1994CorrelationExpected causationExecutive Bylaw on the Authorization to Establish Refah Chain Stores Public Joint-Stock Company
This bylaw authorizes the establishment of the Refah chain stores as a public joint-stock company.
Why this link: Authorized the 1994 formation of the state-run Refah chain-store company, a large public retail network meant to steady the supply and price of consumer goods for households.
Caveat: One retail chain among thousands of outlets; its influence on the national consumer price index cannot be separated from monetary policy, exchange-rate pass-through, and subsidy changes that dominate Iran's inflation path.
Lag: Any price-stabilizing effect would be localized and gradual.1995CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 61 of the General Board of the Administrative Justice Court ... Board of Directors of the Post Company Concerning Telecommunications Service Tariffs
This is General Board Ruling No. 61 of the Administrative Justice Court concerning a decision of the Post Company's board of directors on telecommunications service tariffs.
Why this link: This 1995 Administrative Justice Court ruling addresses the Post Company's telecommunications service tariffs, a regulated communications price feeding into the price index and telecom-sector cost structure.
Caveat: A narrow, sector-specific tariff dispute from the pre-mobile-telecom era; its weight in the aggregate price index is minor and cannot be isolated from broader inflation drivers of the mid-1990s.
Lag: Short, within months of the ruling.1996CorrelationExpected causationOperational Bylaw and General Terms of Water and Wastewater Tariffs
This bylaw sets out the operational rules and general terms governing water and wastewater tariffs.
Why this link: Nationwide operating regulation setting the general conditions and procedure for water and wastewater tariffs, a recurring utility charge that sits within the housing/water/electricity COICOP division of the consumer price index.
Caveat: Water/wastewater charges are a small, heavily-regulated share of the housing COICOP group; movements in that group are dominated by rent and housing costs, so this bylaw's specific contribution cannot be isolated in the aggregate index.
2001CorrelationExpected causationAmendment to Article (6) of the Pricing Regulations for Organizational Housing Annexed to the Executive Bylaw of the Act on the Sale of Organizational Housing
This decree amends Article 6 of the pricing regulations for organizational (government-owned) housing annexed to the executive bylaw of the Act on the Sale of Organizational Housing.
Why this link: Amends pricing rules for the sale of government-owned (organizational) housing units, a narrow administrative price-setting rule that touches the housing-cost component tracked in the CPI's COICOP housing group, though it does not govern the broader private housing market.
Caveat: This rule applies only to a narrow stock of government-owned housing units, so its effect on the economy-wide CPI housing component is negligible and cannot be distinguished from broader housing-market price movements.
2004CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 187 of the General Board of the Administrative Justice Court ... Operational Regulations and General Conditions of Water and Wastewater Tariffs
This is General Board Ruling No. 187 of the Administrative Justice Court concerning operational rules and the general conditions for water and wastewater tariffs.
Why this link: This 2004 Administrative Justice Court ruling addresses the terms and general conditions of water and wastewater tariffs, a regulated household utility price that feeds into the consumer price index.
Caveat: A single adjudication on tariff terms for one utility; its weight within the broader CPI basket is small and cannot be separated from the many other administered-price changes each year.
Lag: Short, within the billing cycle following the ruling.2007CorrelationExpected causationExecutive Bylaw of the Unorganized Monetary Market Regulation Act
Implements the Act on Regulating the Unorganized Monetary Market by requiring non-bank credit and financial institutions, currency exchange bureaus and leasing companies to obtain a license from the Central Bank of Iran and comply with its prudential and capital rules, bringing informal money-lending and credit activity under Central Bank supervision.
Why this link: As a national-scale regulation of informal money markets, this law is a major channel into Iran's broader monetary aggregates, interest-rate structure, and consequently the inflation dynamics that a large, price-setting informal credit market can amplify.
Caveat: Monetary aggregates, interest rates, and inflation in Iran are shaped by many larger forces, government deficit financing, sanctions, exchange-rate pass-through, so this law's specific contribution is real but cannot be isolated from those.
Lag: 1-3 years, diffuse.2010CorrelationExpected causationExecutive Bylaw of Article 10 of the Targeted Subsidies Act
Issued in 2010 under the Targeted Subsidies Act, this bylaw sets up central and provincial commissions to handle appeals from people ordered to repay subsidy payments received through inaccurate information or unmet conditions.
Why this link: The subsidy reform this bylaw implements replaced price subsidies on energy and bread with cash transfers, triggering a sharp one-time jump in administered prices visible across COICOP expenditure groups from 1390 onward.
Caveat: General inflation, exchange-rate depreciation and sanctions were much larger drivers of the price level in this period than the subsidy reform alone.
Lag: Immediate, within the same year as implementation (1389/1390).2011CorrelationExpected causationExecutive Bylaw of Article 6 of the Targeted Subsidies Act
Passed in 2011, this bylaw implements Article 6 of the Targeted Subsidies Act in the bread sector: it sets a subsidized bank loan interest rate of at least 7 percent for industrial bread-production units and channels subsidy-reform revenue to compensate traditional bakeries that shut down.
Why this link: This is the core implementing bylaw of Iran's 2010-2011 Subsidy Targeting Law, which sharply raised administered energy and bread prices in December 2010; it is one of the most direct, well-documented triggers of the ensuing inflation surge.
Caveat: Subsequent years also saw sanctions intensify and the rial depreciate sharply, compounding inflation beyond the subsidy reform's own price-level effect.
Lag: immediate to short2019CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 1423 of the General Board of the Administrative Justice Court: Annulment of the Absolute Application of Clause 41-4 of the Ministry of Energy's Operational Bylaw and General Conditions for Water and Wastewater Tariffs
This ruling by the General Board of Iran's Administrative Justice Court annuls the blanket application of clause 41-4 of the Ministry of Energy's operational bylaw and general conditions for water and wastewater tariffs.
Why this link: This Administrative Justice Court ruling annuls a ministry circular setting water and wastewater tariffs, directly altering the legal basis for a regulated utility price captured within the housing/utilities COICOP group of the CPI.
Caveat: The relevant COICOP group aggregates water charges together with electricity, gas, and other housing-related items, so the isolated effect of this one tariff ruling within the composite group index cannot be separated out.
Lag: Immediate upon the 2019 (SH1398) court ruling.2021CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 1292 of the General Board of the Administrative Justice Court Annulling Clause 2 of Cabinet Resolution No. 101758/T57804H of 2020/12/01 on the Increase in the Price of Consumed Gas Where Consumption Exceeds the Same Period a Year Earlier, for Conflict with Law
Issued in 2021, this ruling by the Administrative Justice Court's General Board struck down a clause of a 2020 Cabinet resolution that had imposed a higher natural gas tariff on households whose consumption exceeded the same period a year earlier, finding the punitive pricing scheme unlawful.
Why this link: An Administrative Justice Court general-assembly ruling struck down a clause of a cabinet decree that would have raised residential natural-gas tariffs for above-average consumption, blocking a specific administrative price rise that would otherwise have fed into the energy/utilities component of consumer prices and into domestic gas demand data.
Caveat: This is a narrow, one-off administrative annulment covering a single tariff clause; its effect cannot be isolated in the aggregate CPI or gas-demand series, which are driven mainly by monetary policy, exchange-rate movements and broader energy subsidy settings.
Lag: Immediate upon publication of the ruling (2021).2021CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 1362 of the General Board of the Administrative Court of Justice ... on the Determination of Sand and Gravel Prices by the Aforementioned Working Group
This ruling by the General Board of the Administrative Court of Justice addresses the determination of sand and gravel prices by the relevant working group.
Why this link: This 2021 court ruling annulled a working group's authority to set prices for sand and gravel, a specific construction input; the database holds no dedicated construction-materials price series, so its closest, weak connection is to Iran's general price indices.
Caveat: Sand and gravel are a minor share of the CPI/WPI basket, and this ruling only removes one agency's price-setting power rather than changing supply, demand or cost conditions, so any effect on general price indices is negligible and not separately observable.
Lag: None separately observable.2022CorrelationExpected causationRuling No. 763 of the General Board of the Administrative Court of Justice ... on the Minutes of the Market Regulation Working Group Session Dated 11 Azar 1398 (2019)
This ruling by the General Board of the Administrative Court of Justice concerns the minutes of a Market Regulation Working Group session held on 11 Azar 1398 (2019).
Why this link: This 2022 court ruling concerns decisions of a market-regulation working group, a body involved in administrative price interventions, giving it a weak, general connection to Iran's price-index series.
Caveat: The ruling addresses one working group's procedural authority, not the price level itself, so no measurable effect on CPI or WPI can be attributed to it.
Lag: None separately observable.