Political Stability - Governance score
Political Stability - Governance score
Event_Log
··1928Capitulations abolishedCorrelationExpected causation
Iran unilaterally ends the 19th-century capitulations regime under which foreign nationals held extraterritorial legal immunity from Iranian courts, asserting full Iranian judicial sovereignty over foreign nationals.
Why this link: Ending extraterritorial legal immunity for foreign nationals was a foundational assertion of judicial sovereignty, part of the broader legal-modernization program later loosely reflected in rule-of-law governance scoring.
Caveat: No continuous rule-of-law measure exists for the intervening seven decades (WGI data begins only in 1996); link is illustrative context only.
012019Gasoline price hike triggers nationwide protestsCorrelationExpected causation
Government raises subsidized fuel prices and imposes rationing overnight; protests spread to 190+ cities ('Bloody Aban'); Amnesty International verified 304 deaths in the state crackdown; a 4-day nationwide internet shutdown followed.
Why this link: The nationwide 'Bloody Aban' protests and the state's deadly crackdown are exactly the kind of unrest episode the political-stability governance score is designed to capture.
Caveat: The annual WGI score reflects a composite of many indicators and expert assessments, not this single episode alone.
Lag: reflected in same-year scoreSource: NPR··2019US designates IRGC a Foreign Terrorist OrganizationCorrelationExpected causation
The State Department designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) -- including its Quds Force and affiliated entities such as the Khatam al-Anbia construction/engineering conglomerate -- as a Foreign Terrorist Organization effective 15 April 2019, the first time the US has so designated part of another government's armed forces; the move raises legal exposure for any foreign firm found dealing with IRGC-linked companies, which control a large share of Iran's construction, telecom and energy-services sectors.
Why this link: As the first such designation applied to another government's official military institution, it escalated confrontation risk between the US and Iran, a factor in perceived political stability.
Caveat: This designation was largely symbolic and legal rather than economic, and the Political Stability score reflects many factors beyond any single bilateral designation.
022022Mahsa Amini protestsCorrelationExpected causation
Death of Mahsa Amini in morality-police custody triggers months of nationwide unrest, disrupting business activity and accelerating rial depreciation.
Why this link: Months of nationwide unrest following Mahsa Amini's death is precisely the kind of large-scale political instability episode this governance indicator is built to register.
Caveat: The annual score also reflects other concurrent factors (economic distress, prior protest waves), so the full magnitude of the score's movement cannot be attributed to this episode alone.
Lag: reflected in same-year scoreSource: Encyclopaedia Britannica··2023Iran-Saudi Arabia relations restoredCorrelationExpected causation
A Beijing-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia re-establishes diplomatic relations and reopens embassies after a seven-year rupture, easing regional tensions with implications for regional trade and investment.
Why this link: Easing a seven-year regional rupture with a major neighbor reduces one source of external-conflict risk that feeds into the political-stability score.
Caveat: Domestic unrest, sanctions, and other geopolitical flashpoints dominate the stability score far more than this one bilateral rapprochement, so its isolated contribution is small.
Lag: monthsSource: Al Jazeera··2024President Raisi dies in helicopter crashCorrelationExpected causation
President Ebrahim Raisi's death triggers a snap presidential election; markets and the rial reacted to the political uncertainty.
Why this link: An abrupt presidential succession is a political-stability-relevant shock, prompting a snap election under uncertainty.
Caveat: Iran's institutional succession mechanism (constitutionally mandated snap election) limited the destabilizing effect relative to a true power vacuum, so the score impact is likely modest.
Lag: reflected in same-year scoreSource: Encyclopaedia Britannica032025Israel-Iran Twelve-Day WarCorrelationExpected causation
Israel launches Operation Rising Lion, striking Iranian nuclear and military sites from 13 to 24 June 2025; Iran's oil exports fall to roughly 102,000 bbl/day mid-war, a refinery near Tehran and part of the South Pars gas field are damaged, and the rial depreciates sharply through the following weeks.
Why this link: A direct military strike on Iranian nuclear and military sites by a foreign power is a maximal political-stability shock by any standard definition.
Caveat: The annual score reflects a full-year composite assessment, so the magnitude of this 11-day war's specific contribution to the score cannot be isolated from other concurrent developments in 2025.
Lag: reflected in same-year scoreSource: Al Jazeera