تورم، قیمت‌های مصرف‌کننده (درصد سالانه)_

رویدادها

1. 01۱۹۷۴Great Civilization spending surge -- Fifth Plan revisedقوت ارتباط

   Following the 1973-74 oil price quadrupling, government oil revenue rises from $5bn to $19bn in a year; the Shah revises the Fifth Development Plan, nearly doubling total planned investment from $36.5bn to $70bn and raising overall government spending from $44bn to $123bn, fueling severe absorptive-capacity bottlenecks and inflation.

   چرایی این پیوند: CPI inflation climbed from 11.3% (1976) to a pre-2010s-series peak of 27.3% in 1977, consistent with the classic absorptive-capacity-constrained overheating that followed the 1973-74 oil-boom spending surge; the government's blunt 1975-77 anti-profiteering price-control crackdown (a further contemporaneous event) suppressed some price signals while doing little to address the underlying excess-demand cause.

   ملاحظه: A 2-3 year lag between the spending surge and the inflation peak is plausible but not provable from this series alone; wage/price data quality for this period is also generally weaker than for the post-1979 series.

   تأخیر اثر: 2-3 year lagمنبع: Intereconomics (Naini) -- The Fifth Development Plan
2. 02۱۹۹۳Exchange-rate unification attemptقوت ارتباط

   Rafsanjani government attempts to unify Iran's multiple-tier exchange rate system; the effort partially unwinds after reserve pressure.

   چرایی این پیوند: CPI inflation rose from 21.2% (1993) to 31.4% (1994) and peaked at 49.7% in 1995 -- the highest rate in the pre-2010s WDI series -- as the 1993 devaluation (official rate from ~66 to ~1,268 rials/US$) passed through into import prices with the classic 1-2 year exchange-rate pass-through lag.

   ملاحظه: None substantial; this lag structure is consistent with standard exchange-rate pass-through literature.

   تأخیر اثر: 1-2 year lagمنبع: IMF Iran country page (Article IV history)
3. 03۲۰۱۲Rial collapses amid sanctions squeezeقوت ارتباط

   Under the combined weight of NDAA Central Bank sanctions, the EU oil embargo and the SWIFT disconnection, Iran's free-market rial loses roughly a quarter to 40% of its value against the US dollar within a single week, falling to about 35,000-40,000 rials/dollar versus roughly 10,000/dollar two years earlier; Tehran's Grand Bazaar merchants strike in protest on 3 October 2012.

   چرایی این پیوند: CPI inflation rose from 26.3% (2011) to 27.3% (2012) and then 36.6% (2013) as the sanctions-driven rial collapse of October 2012 passed through into consumer prices, one of the most directly documented sanctions-to-inflation episodes in Iran's recent economic history.

   ملاحظه: None substantial.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 1-year lagمنبع: NPR -- Currency In Crisis: Collapse Of Iran's Rial Continues
4. 04۲۰۱۸US withdraws from JCPOAقوت ارتباط

   President Trump announces US withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions after 90/180-day wind-down periods (effective Aug 7 and Nov 5, 2018).

   چرایی این پیوند: CPI inflation more than doubled from 18.0% (2018) to 39.9% (2019) following the JCPOA withdrawal and snapback sanctions, one of the sharpest single-year inflation accelerations in the series.

   ملاحظه: None substantial.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate to 1-year lagمنبع: Wikipedia — US withdrawal from the JCPOA (cross-check against OFAC primary orders)
5. 05۲۰۲۲Preferential "4,200 toman" import-currency rate eliminatedقوت ارتباط

   Parliament approves ending the subsidized foreign-currency allocation for essential imports (flour, medicine), removing the ~$10-14bn/yr subsidy and roughly doubling bread prices for many bakeries.

   چرایی این پیوند: CPI inflation stayed persistently elevated at 43-45% through 2021-2023. The May 2022 removal of the subsidized import-currency rate for essential goods (which roughly doubled bread prices for many bakeries) is a direct, well-documented driver of a meaningful share of this sustained inflation, compounding the base effect of ongoing sanctions-era rial depreciation.

   ملاحظه: This is one contributing factor among several sustaining an already very high inflation baseline (sanctions, prior rial depreciation, expansionary broad-money growth); it does not explain the full 43-45% level on its own.

   تأخیر اثر: immediate (same year)منبع: Bourse & Bazaar Foundation